How can we help you?

• Expected Move - what the metric is and how we calculate it from options prices
• Expected Move vs breakeven - how far your breakeven sits from the move
• Expected Move vs strike - how far your strike sits from the move
• A real example (NVDA), where to find the fields in the scan, and example use cases

What is the Expected Move?

The Expected Move tells you how much the options market expects a stock to move by a certain expiration date. It is calculated from live options prices, so it reflects traders' collective estimate of future volatility - and it changes all the time as those prices change.

How it's calculated: the average between the at-the-money straddle price (call + put at the strike closest to the stock price) and the ATM strangle (the narrowest out-of-the-money call and put combination). This gives a balanced measure that captures both symmetrical and slightly directional pricing.

Expiration-based: the expected move is recalculated for each expiration date, giving a precise, timeframe-specific reading.

The range: in the results table, the Expected Move column shows the percent move on top and the two boundaries underneath (for example 8.06% and 207.34 - 243.69). The lower number is the lower boundary, the higher number is the upper boundary.

Expected Move vs breakeven and vs strike

The Expected Move gives you a price range. Two fields tell you where your trade sits compared to that range, so you don't have to compare prices by hand:

• Distance Breakeven vs Expected Move: how far the trade's breakeven is from each boundary. Use it to see if the price you need to lose money (or make money) is outside or inside the expected move.

• Distance Strike vs Expected Move: how far the option's strike is from each boundary. Use it to see if the strike is outside or inside the expected move.

How to read the numbers

• Upper and Lower: each field shows two values - the distance to the upper and to the lower boundary of the expected move.

• Percent of the stock price: both values are a percentage of the current stock price, so a low-volatility stock and a high-volatility stock are easy to compare.

• The sign tells you the side: positive means the strike (or breakeven) is above that boundary; negative means it is below.

• Rule of thumb: sellers usually want strikes and breakevens outside the expected move; buyers usually want them inside.

A real example

A Naked PUT scan on NVDA. The stock trades at $225.51. The Expected Move is 8.06%, so the range is 207.34 - 243.69. The put has a strike of 205 and a bid of $2.25, so its breakeven is 202.75.

• Distance Strike, Lower -1.04%: the strike (205) sits 1.04% of the stock price below the lower boundary (207.34) - outside the expected move.

• Distance Breakeven, Lower -2.03%: the stock has to fall past the whole expected move, and a bit more, before this trade loses money.

Above: the Distance Breakeven vs Expected Move, Distance Strike vs Expected Move and Expected Move columns in the scan results. Each shows Upper and Lower values.

Where to find them in the scan

Both fields are filters and result columns. Click Add Filters, search for "Expected Move", and you will find Expected Move, Distance Breakeven vs Expected Move and Distance Strike vs Expected Move. Once added, they appear under Option Data in the left panel. Hover a filter to read its short description. After you run the scan, each filter also adds a column to the results table.

Filter with presets (basic view): Any (no filtering), Strikes outside EM / Breakevens outside EM, Strikes inside EM / Breakevens inside EM.

Set your own limits (advanced view): four boxes - Upper Exp. Move From/To and Lower Exp. Move From/To, each a percent of the stock price. For example, Lower To 0 means "strikes below the lower expected move". A Match option decides whether a trade must fit on both sides or on either side, for strategies that have a strike on each side.

Why use this data point?

• Set realistic price targets when building directional trades.

• Understand whether an option is cheap or expensive relative to expected movement.

• Read underlying sentiment and volatility priced in by the options market.

• Build probability-aligned trades like iron condors, straddles, or directional spreads.

• Find strikes and breakevens outside the expected move in one step, with the two distance fields.

• Compare trades on different stocks fairly - the distances are a percentage of the stock price.

Since it's derived directly from options pricing, this metric is uncorrelated with technical indicators and complements them well for a "bigger picture" view.

Example use cases

• Sell short strangles where your outlook aligns with the stock staying within the expected move range.

• Build iron condors that match the expected move boundaries to balance risk and reward.

• Before earnings, check the expected move to see how much of a move is already priced in, then trade accordingly.

• Scan Naked PUTs and set Distance Strike vs Expected Move to "Strikes outside EM" to see only puts sold below the expected move.

• Layer in other metrics like IV Rank, Delta, or Analyst Targets for more informed, probability-aligned strategies.

Read more: Implied volatility suite - KB · Use Case: Sell Puts outside the Expected Move - KB